Goldman Sachs maintains Macau GGR forecast at over?€26B despite temporary setbacks?

Jenny Ortiz July 11, 2024

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Goldman Sachs maintains Macau GGR forecast at over?€26B despite temporary setbacks?

Goldman Sachs predicts that the adverse effects of the rainy weather and the ongoing UEFA Euro 2024 will only temporarily impact Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR). Historically, events like the UEFA Euro can reduce total GGR by up to 5 percent, but this impact is usually recovered by August and September. The investment banking firm said that with the UEFA Euro concluding on July 14, any negative effect on GGR should be short-lived.

Latest government data shows Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) for June dropped to MOP17.7 billion (€2 billion), marking a 12.4 percent decline from May’s MOP20.19 billion (€2.34 billion).

Macau GGR expected to hit over €26B billion in 2024

Goldman Sachs projects that Macau’s GGR for 2024 will reach $29 billion (€26.75 billion), which is 82 percent of the pre-COVID-19 level. This forecast implies a 14 percent year-on-year growth for the second half of 2024, translating to a daily GGR run-rate of MOP638 million (€58.8 million).

Company performance and market dynamics?

The investment firm also anticipates varied performance among key players in Macau’s gaming industry for the second quarter of 2024. Galaxy Entertainment is expected to post a sequential EBITDA growth of 9 percent, whereas Wynn Macau and MGM China are projected to see declines of 13 percent and 10 percent respectively. This variance is attributed to differing strategies in promotional activities and market share shifts during April and May.??

Galaxy Entertainment and Melco have gained market share from Wynn Macau and MGM China by ramping up promotional activities, normalising Galaxy’s market share to 19 percent in June. Despite renovations at The Londoner, Sands China maintained a relatively stable market share of 24 percent, although it likely saw a quarter-on-quarter decline in non-gaming revenue by approximately $20 million (€18.45 million).

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